Floods due to dam break constitute a potential hazard to life and property at downstream area. During the recent decades several catastrophes have happened due to the failure of dams at various locations in the world. The actual failure modes are not well understood for either earthen or concrete dams. In previous attempts to predict the downstream flooding due to dam failures, it was usually assumed that the dam failed suddenly. The prediction of dam break flood hydrograph is very important for dam safety analysis. Controlling downstream developments, evacuation planning, assessment the damage due to dam break and the propagation of flood waves are additional benefits. The main objective of this paper is to predict the outflow hydrograph which may occur when the GERD break. The risk of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) breaking is numerically presented. Site data, measurements and data collection are analyzed. A suitable numerical model is selected to simulate flood hydrograph after dam break. Expected impacts of the GERD break are simulated. Obtained results are analyzed and presented. Outflow hydrographs due to the failure mode are obtained and highlighted. A risk assessment to the GERD breaking is achieved and different scenarios are proposed. Results of the present paper can help decision makers to set alternative plans to cope with risks of the GERD break. |
