Nations and states are concerned about the economic, social, political, and
environmental consequences of population growth. At the local level, planning
for schools, hospitals, and other projects is strongly affected by expected
population growth. Population projections are very useful tools for planning if
constructed and interpreted properly.
Population projections are used to predict future population change, to
analyze the determinants of population change, to give the data users an
indication of potential future scenarios and as a base for constructing other
types of projections.
The importance of the population projections, which are considered in the
present study can be stated in the following points:
1. Highlight the concept of projection and regional planning.
2. Identify the best and most effective methods which can be used to
calculate the projection components [fertility, mortality, and migration].
3. Clarify the necessary data and rates required to make the local
population projection.
4. Suggest a local population projection model to help planners and
decision makers to take the right decision about regional planning
policies on a scientific basis.
5. Apply the suggested mathematical model for the Qalyobia Governorate
in the state of Egypt.
6. Discuss methods for projecting the main characteristics such as school
enrollment and labor force.
7. Update the data at the local level.
Much of the researches on population projections have focused on
projections at the national level. Although these researches have been very
valuable, conclusions based on studies of national projections are not always
applicable to states and local areas because the following two main reasons:
First, there are substantial differences in data availability and reliability
between national and sub-national areas. Some data series are available only at
the national level. Others are available with greater frequency at the national
level than at state and local levels. Due to reporting, coverage, and sampling
errors, data quality is likely to be better for nations than for sub-national areas.
iii
Second, migration-both international and local plays a greater role in
population growth at the state and local levels than at the national level.
Fertility and mortality are the major determinants of population growth in most
countries, with international migration having a relatively small impact.
Migration is the primary determinant of population change in many states and
local areas and it is much more volatile over time than either fertility or
mortality. This volatility makes migration more difficult to forecast accurately.
Projections at the local level are very important for their unique
characteristics, the relatively small amount of research that has been done at
the local level, and for the decision making process. This requires to pay great
attention to the problems of data availability and reliability and migration.
The present study is concerned with the development of a mathematical
model for projecting local populations. The model considered in the present
study has an advantage over the traditional methods because it is not concerned
with the projection of population only, but the considered model is devoted to
make a detailed local population projection to each of the demographic
components (which are fertility, mortality, and net migration) to clarify the
importance of each component in changing the characteristics and region size
to help the regional planners in making good plans in light of the results of
each component. The suggested model is referred to as the complete
component projection model.
The present study considered many accuracy measures which can be used to
show how well projections have performed over the projection horizon, also to
show how well the suggested model fit the data observed during the base
period.
An application to the suggested model is implemented to Qalyobia
Governorate where a separate projection for each component [mortality, net
migration and fertility] is carried out to clarify the importance of each
component in changing the characteristics and size of the Qalyobia
Governorate. Also, to know the real population numbers of this Governorate
without excess or negligence to help in effective regional planning.
The local projection for Qalyobia Governorate is implemented through two
stages, the 1st stage at year 2011 and the 2nd stage at year 2016.
iv
Projections can be used not only to analyze the determinants of population
change, but also to give the data user an indication of potential future
scenarios.
The present study considered some extensions of the component model with
respect to future changes, and other sectoral projections, which have great
important uses of the model in the regional planning. Most data users,
especially at the local level use projections as a guide for future events and
regional planning. The effect of future changes in demographic components
has an impact on governmental policies. The present study considered the
future changes in fertility and mortality component by the synthetic
projections. Also, this study contained related sectoral projections in school
enrollment and labor force sectors in Qalyobia Governorate.
The application of the present study can be stated in the following points:
1-The effect of the mortality component on Qalyobia distribution of male and
female projected population by age at year 2016.
2- The effect of the migration component on Qalyobia distribution of male and
female projected migrants by age at year 2016.
3- The effect of the fertility component on Qalyobia distribution of total male
and female births by age of mother at year 2016.
4- All the net migration values of the Qalyobia Governorate are positive
values, i.e., the Qalyobia Governorate has an internal net migration. This
result support the results in Mustafa and EL-Rouby in 1992, and in Central
Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics in 2006 that, the Qalyobia
Governorate is an attractive area for people in the state of Egypt.
5- Net migration is an important component in the population changes of the
Qalyobia Governorate since the net migration rate of Qalyobia Governorate
in 2006 is equal to 18.6%.
6- The total population of the Qalyobia Governorate for the target year 2016 is
equal to 5478267.
7- As stated at the end of chapter three that, the measure of the model accuracy
is equal to 0.33%, which is a good indicator that, the complete component
projection model achieves a good accuracy.
8- The projection of school enrollment for the Qalyobia Governorate at the
target year 2016 indicates the following:
v
- The male population students of primary schools is equal to 336,900
students.
- The female population students of primary schools is equal to 318,979
students.
- The total population students of primary schools is equal to 655,879
students.
- Projected population number of students in primary schools is equal to
678,179.
- The male population students of preparatory schools is equal to 149,641
students.
- The female population students of preparatory schools is equal to 141,202
students.
- The total population students of preparatory schools is equal to 290,843
students.
- The projected population number of students in preparatory schools is
equal to 280,372.
- The required projected classrooms in primary schools are equal to 22600
if it is assumed that, the classroom density is 30 students in each
classroom.
- The required projected classrooms in preparatory school are equal to
9345 if it is assumed that, the classroom density is 30 students in each
classroom.
9- The projected male population at year 2016 in the labor force is equal to
13378 hundred.
10-The projected female population at year 2016 in the labor force is equal
to 4010 hundred. |
