The selection of the Egyptian onion crop due to that the most economic studies indicated that the
onion crop is considered one of the most important vegetable crops, which occupies a high position in
the Egyptian agricultural export earnings. However, the statistics indicated that the ratio of exports to
production fluctuates and decreases.
The results of the current model show that the most critical factors affecting the average of Egyptian
per capita consumption of onion according to the simultaneous model is the average of per capita
share of domestic production of onion, and the average of price per kg of Egyptian consumers of
onion.
The estimation showed that the most important factors affecting the average of per capita import
in the main import markets of Egyptian onion exports (according to the model) are both the average of
per capita Egyptian domestic production, China's average export price (a direct relationship), while
the average export price of Egyptian onion (inverse relationship). By forecasting total household
consumption, it will reach about 2537 thousand tons during 2020, and reach about 2961 thousand tons
in 2025, by increasing about 16.7% of its value in 2020 using the simultaneous model.
The most important factors affecting the local production of Egyptian onion (according to the
model) are the average of per capita UAE imports of the previous year, the average of Egyptian farm
price of onion in dollars in the previous year, and the average of per capita consumption of Egyptian
onion in the previous year.
The total domestic production is expected to reach about 2783 thousand tons during 2020 and
reach about 3620 thousand tons in 2025, representing an increase of 30.1% of its value in 2020 using
the simultaneous model. |
