This paper aims to examine the current situation for the food security of Egypt's most important cereal crops (wheat, rice, and maize) during (2000-2016) and projected years till 2020 and 2025. The research was based on the time trend pattern, growth rate, Brown and Holt models for forecasting, Food security, and the research based on secondary data to achieve its objectives. The research found several results, the most important of which are: Egypt is the only Arab country ranked among the top 20 grains-producing countries in the world and ranked first in Africa and the Arab world in most of the crops in 2016. Egyptian wheat production reached about 9 million tons, about 1.20%, 39.2%, 2% of global, African and Arab production, respectively, while the production of rice amounted to about 6.3 million tons, by about 0.85%, 19.4%, 92.5% of the world production, African and Arab respectively. While the production of maize about 8 million tons and by about 0.75%, 11.34%, 89.5% of global, African and Arab production, respectively. A study of the trend equations of the study variables for wheat, rice, and maize crops in Egypt during the period 2000-2016 shows that production, consumption, and quantity of imports have taken an increasing general trend but the percentage of self-sufficiency, food gap and per capita average have declined. Production, consumption, quantity of imports, self-sufficiency ratio, food gap, and average per capita share of wheat yield to.2.48%, 3.89%, 5.43%, -1.37%, -5.61%, -1.45 %, Respectively. The annual growth rates of production, consumption, imports, self-sufficiency, food gap and average per capita rice yield were 2.26%, 3.53%. 9.87%. -1.34%. -9.29%. and -1.55%. respectively3
The total value of the strategic stocks of the study crops during the year 2000/2016 was estimated to be about 3682.02, 287.50, and 4167 thousand tons which are sufficient to consume 4.15 months, 29.4 days (one month), and 7.16 months for wheat, rice and maize respectively.
The estimated food security coefficient for the study crops during the period (2000-2016) was found to be about 0.004, - 0.001, 0.034 for wheat, rice and maize respectively, which is close to zero, indicating the low level of food security. A study of the expected status of the food security variables of the study crops in Egypt until 2025 shows that the production increased to about 9960.3, 22844.1, and 12100.9 thousand tons and the consumption quantity increased to 6838.9, 6432.7, and 60.8 thousand tons, and the quantity of imports increased to 8718.7, 15348, and 6138.1 thousand tons for each of wheat, rice, and maize respectively. while showing a decrease of both the proportion of self-sufficiency 40.3%, 100.6%, and 61.9% and average per capita consumption 132.4, 29, and 17.8 kg/year for wheat, rice, and maize respectively. Finally, the research recommends that to increase the feddan productivity of wheat, rice and maize to the strategic margin of safety, in view of the increase in the population in Egypt by adopting procedures and executive mechanisms of the government, agricultural research centers and Egyptian universities as a national security issue, in addition, the food awareness of the citizen himself, as the focus and goal of development and economic security of Egypt. |
