Sea-level rise is one of the most critical issues facing the world as a result of global warming. Finding robust projections for coastal flooding estimates is consequently essential for the effective management of coastal regions. The future impacts of climate change remain in the realm of uncertainty. According to Inter-Governmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the sea level rise imposes the ultimate challenge facing most of the coastal areas, so studying the inundation of low-lying lands along the coastal zones is a very important and vital issue, especially for countries like Egypt which is exposed to climate changes in terms of sea level rise (SLR), increase in temperature and reduction of precipitations. According to the Fifth Assessment IPCC Reports, the Sea Level Rise will be around 78 cm, and by 2100 may be around 100 cm (AR5,2014); but their magnitude remains uncertain. This study provides bounds on the uncertainty of sea-level rise variability arising from future-projection sensitivity analyzes of Twenty-Eight (28) Global Circulation Models (GCMs) on an annual basis along the Egyptian Red Sea coastal zones (from Suez to Hurghada). Values are examined under the conditions of four different scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) belonging to the Fifth Assessment IPCC Reports (IPCC, AR5). The results show that there is a wide range of possible sea-level rise scenarios, with some models projecting a rise of just a few centimeters and others projecting a rise of more than a meter. Using the ensembles of the optimum GCM the uncertainty of SLR values are reduced. such results revealed that the increase in the sea level due to the ensemble of the optimum Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under each scenario; RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6, 8.5 will be 60.5, 71, 77.7, 104.6 cm, respectively. |
